Would you go tonight?
The payoff to attending depends on how many other people independently make the same forecast.
Inside this model
Ninety-nine other agents independently go with probability 1−expected-attendance/100, a transparent toy response to the public expectation. A seeded round samples turnout; your attendance adds one. Going pays +1 if total attendance is at or below capacity, −1 otherwise; staying yields zero.
Out in the world
A practical use
Decide whether to visit a popular place when everyone has the same crowd forecast.
A useful lens. Not a universal law.
- Other agents use a fixed response rule, not Arthur's adaptive heterogeneous forecasting strategies.
Associated thinkers
Further reading
Explore the original research or the teaching reference behind this experiment.
W. Brian Arthur — Inductive Reasoning and Bounded Rationality ↗