AI & work5 min read
A practical way to assess AI job exposure, find the real bottleneck in your work, and choose a small skill experiment without betting your career on a forecast.
Everyday decisions5 min read
A practical verification routine for suspicious calls, messages, and payment requests, explained through signal detection, base rates, and value of information.
Information & forecasts5 min read
Read prediction-market prices more carefully: check the contract, liquidity, shared information, calibration, and the difference between a forecast and a decision.
Systems & climate5 min read
Understand AI energy demand through Jevons paradox, a simple break-even calculation, and the difference between efficiency per task and total consumption.
Learning5 min read
Build an AI study routine around retrieval practice, feedback, and spaced review. Learn how to distinguish a polished answer from knowledge you can use alone.
Markets & systems5 min read
See how policy uncertainty, delayed deliveries, and duplicate orders can amplify supply-chain swings. Use a practical inventory-position check before reacting.
Information & forecasts5 min read
Use availability bias, base rates, and independent evidence to assess alarming headlines without confusing repeated coverage with the frequency of an event.
Systems & climate5 min read
Learn what an El Niño forecast does and does not say about local weather, then use scenarios, base rates, and low-regret preparation to make a practical plan.
Markets & systems5 min read
Map shared dependencies across investments, vendors, and business operations. Learn why counting holdings or suppliers is not enough to establish diversification.
Everyday decisions5 min read
Understand subscription renewals through defaults, present bias, and sunk costs. Use a practical recurring-bill audit with a clear keep-or-cancel decision.