After a streak, what is the next flip's chance?
Independent random events do not remember the sequence before them.
Inside this model
The fair-coin chance of heads on the next flip remains 50% after any specified streak. The plot contrasts that with the declining chance of having seen the whole streak beforehand, (1/2)^n.
Out in the world
A practical use
Avoid treating a losing run in a fair game as evidence that a win is owed.
A useful lens. Not a universal law.
- If the device is biased or conditions change, past results can be informative; independence is an assumption.
Associated thinkers
Further reading
Explore the original research or the teaching reference behind this experiment.
Tversky and Kahneman — Judgment under Uncertainty ↗