Would you trade certainty for a small chance at more?
Maurice Allais used linked lottery choices to challenge the independence axiom of expected utility. Many people choose certainty in one pair and a larger long-shot in the other.
Inside this model
Pair 1: A pays the base prize for sure; B pays 5×base with 10%, base with 89%, zero with 1%. Pair 2: C pays base with 11% and zero otherwise; D pays 5×base with 10% and zero otherwise. The game draws seeded uniform outcomes and shows both expected payoffs. A with D is the classic independence-axiom conflict.
Out in the world
A practical use
A guaranteed benefit and a high-upside gamble may be evaluated differently when a common outcome is removed from both choices.
A useful lens. Not a universal law.
- One answer cannot diagnose a person's rationality. Stakes here are fictional, and risk attitudes are not estimated from a single trial.
Associated thinkers
Further reading
Explore the original research or the teaching reference behind this experiment.
Fondation Maurice Allais — Théorie du risque ↗