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DeGroot Learning.

Exchange weighted beliefs and compare an averaging network with a stubborn source.

Interactive experimentintuitiveField note ·
INTERACTIVE EXPERIMENT / P64

DeGroot Learning

Exchange weighted beliefs and compare an averaging network with a stubborn source.

TEST THE MECHANISM

Three agents begin at beliefs 0, 0.4 and 1. A averages itself and B; B uses weights 0.25, 0.5, 0.25; C averages B and itself. Optionally make A keep its original belief forever.

Belief000.50.511Round →
Agent AAgent BAgent C
A belief
0.000
B belief
0.400
C belief
1.000
Averaging-network consensus limit
0.450

The ordinary network weights initial beliefs by influence (0.25, 0.5, 0.25). Repeated averaging can converge without new evidence; it is not Bayesian updating or a guarantee of accuracy.

Weights and initial beliefs are invented. Repeated averaging adds no new evidence and is not Bayesian inference or a guarantee of truth.

THE SHORT VERSION

DeGroot Learning, explained.

DeGroot learning updates each agent’s belief as a weighted average of current beliefs in a specified social network.

01 / THE MECHANISM

Why it happens

Three initial beliefs zero, 0.4 and one update through declared row-stochastic weights. The ordinary network converges to influence-weighted 0.45; fixing the first agent at zero draws the others toward zero.

DeGroot learning updates each agent’s belief as a weighted average of current beliefs in a specified social network.

Read the result

The limiting belief weights initial agents by network influence, not necessarily equal head counts. Stubbornness changes the update rule rather than adding evidence.

02 / FOLLOW IT THROUGH

A worked example

Compare repeated averaging with a fixed source

  1. Start with beliefs zero, 0.4 and one under the ordinary averaging weights.

  2. Exchange beliefs toward limit 0.45, comparing that with the simple initial arithmetic mean about 0.467.

  3. Reset with agent A stubborn at zero and inspect the others being pulled toward that fixed value.

OPTIONAL DEEPER DETAILGo deeper: inside the model

Inside this model

Three initial beliefs zero, 0.4 and one update through declared row-stochastic weights. The ordinary network converges to influence-weighted 0.45; fixing the first agent at zero draws the others toward zero.

03 / BEYOND THE EXPERIMENT

Where this idea is useful

A practical use

Inspect influence weights before interpreting repeated agreement as the average of independent observations.

CHECK YOUR INTUITION

A common misconception

THE TEMPTING CONCLUSION

“Repeated averaging automatically counts each person’s evidence once.”

THE MORE USEFUL DISTINCTION

Network paths repeatedly reuse beliefs and create unequal influence. This deterministic social averaging is not independent-evidence aggregation.

What this explanation leaves out

  • Weights and initial beliefs are invented. Repeated averaging adds no new evidence and is not Bayesian inference or a guarantee of truth.
ONE MORE QUESTION

Does convergence prove accuracy?

No. The process supplies no external truth or new evidence, so agreement and correctness remain separate questions.

TAKE THE IDEA WITH YOU

Which agent’s initial belief receives extra influence from the communication weights?

Associated thinkers

Associated withMorris DeGroot ↗

Associations marked provisional are awaiting source review.

Further reading

Explore the original research or the teaching reference behind this experiment.